# Clarity Act Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price After the Midterms

> As of November 11, 2026, prediction markets give the Clarity Act almost no chance of becoming law this year: 2.15% on Polymarket and 3.45% on Kalshi. The odds fell from 81.5% in February after a failed Senate vote and the Democratic midterm sweep. Kalshi puts 19% on any crypto market structure law before 2028.

Published 2026-11-11 by CryptoPrediction Desk. Canonical: https://cryptoprediction.news/clarity-act-odds/

## Key points

- Polymarket's Clarity Act contract trades at 2.15% as of November 11, 2026, down from a peak of 81.5% on February 20; it has traded $25.2 million, more than ten times its 2026 Solana price ladder.
- The Senate's September 15 cloture vote failed 49 to 50, short of 60; Polymarket's price fell from 17.5% to 4.85% in a day.
- Kalshi's 2026 contract fell from about 6% to about 3% in the 24 hours after the November 3 midterms gave Democrats both chambers.
- Kalshi's date ladder for any crypto market structure law prices 9.5% by April 1, 2027, 16.5% by October 1, 2027 and 19% by January 1, 2028.
- Kalshi has priced the 2026 outcome above Polymarket all autumn, including 39 cents against about 21% two days before the Senate vote.


As of the evening of November 11, 2026, prediction markets price the Clarity Act as all but finished for this year. Polymarket gives H.R. 3633 a 2.15% chance of being signed into law by December 31, and Kalshi's contract on a crypto market structure law before January 1, 2027 trades at about 3.45%. Both venues priced the bill above 65% in mid-May. Kalshi's longer-dated contracts put 19% on a qualifying law before 2028.

All prices are midpoints of the best bid and ask from each venue's public market data at about 5:15 p.m. ET on November 11, 2026 (22:15 UTC). The Polymarket contract also updates on our [Clarity Act odds page](/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/).

## What the market is pricing

| Market | Venue | Yes price (%) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 | Polymarket | 2.15 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Market structure law before Dec 1, 2026 | Kalshi | 0.5 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Market structure law before Jan 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 3.45 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Market structure law before Apr 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 9.5 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Market structure law before Jul 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 12 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Market structure law before Oct 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 16.5 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| Market structure law before Jan 1, 2028 | Kalshi | 19 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| More than 60 senators vote for the Clarity Act | Polymarket | 4.5 | Nov 11, 2026 |
| US national bitcoin reserve before 2027 | Polymarket | 3.45 | Nov 11, 2026 |

## Where does the Clarity Act stand?

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025, according to a [client alert from Orrick](https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation). In the Senate it needed two committee texts. The Agriculture Committee advanced its version in January 2026 without Democratic support, and the Banking Committee voted 15 to 9 on May 14, with Democrats Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks in favor, [The Block reported](https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-05-14-senate-banking-committee-advances-landmark-crypto-market-structure-bill-garners-some-democratic-support-401341).

On September 15 a cloture motion to begin floor debate failed 49 to 50, 11 votes short of 60, per Orrick and [FinTech Weekly](https://www.fintechweekly.com/magazine/articles/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026). Sen. Thom Tillis voted no so he could enter a motion to reconsider, which keeps a path to another vote. Democrats including Kirsten Gillibrand, Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker and Mark Warner voted no over ethics rules for officials' crypto holdings, [The Block reported](https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-15-clarity-act-preliminary-vote-falls-short-in-senate-amid-ethics-fight-over-trumps-crypto-wealth-415010). Warner said "the failure to address this fundamental conflict of interest made it impossible for me to support moving forward." Stablecoin yield was the other unresolved issue, per Orrick.

Then the midterms. On November 3, Democrats won both the House and the Senate, flipping seven Republican Senate seats, [OPB reported](https://www.opb.org/article/2026/11/04/2026-midterms-democrats-win-the-senate/). The new Congress is sworn in in January. Reiners, a Duke University crypto-regulation expert, told [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/make-it/2026/11/04/democrats-congress-crypto-regulation-clarity-act.html) on November 4 that "CLARITY is dead" and that lame-duck passage was unlikely, without ruling it out. A bill that is not enacted "dies" at the end of a Congress, per [Penn State University Libraries' legislative guide](https://guides.libraries.psu.edu/legislative/bills), so a 2027 law would have to start from a new bill.

## How have the odds moved in 2026?

Polymarket's [daily price history](https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history) for the contract, which opened on January 11:

- **January 12:** 65% on the first full day of trading.
- **February 20:** 81.5%, the high for the year.
- **May 15:** 69.5%, the day after the Banking Committee vote.
- **July 1 and August 1:** 39.5%, then 25%, as the floor vote slipped toward September.
- **September 14:** 21.5%, the day before the cloture vote. By September 16 it was 4.85%.
- **November 3 to November 11:** between 2.15% and 3.45%.

Kalshi's two monthly contracts for October 1 and November 1, 2026 have already resolved No.

## What does Kalshi's date ladder add?

Kalshi's market is broader than Polymarket's. Its [rules](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE&with_nested_markets=true) pay on any bill that sets a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, divides authority between regulators such as the SEC and CFTC, and classifies when tokens are securities or commodities. The Clarity Act qualifies, and so would a successor bill. Stablecoin-only bills, executive orders and agency rules do not count. Polymarket's contract pays only on H.R. 3633 itself.

That difference is what makes the 2027 rungs meaningful. Read as a curve, the ladder puts about 6 points of probability on a law between January 1 and April 1, 2027, another 2.5 points by July 1, 4.5 points by October 1 and 2.5 points by year-end. Our read: traders see a new bill in the Democratic-controlled Congress as possible, with the largest single step in the first quarter of 2027 and the rest spread through the year.

The election hit that curve harder than it hit 2026. Kalshi's [hourly data](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE/markets/KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27/candlesticks) shows its 2026 contract quoted at 5.8 cents bid and 6.7 cents ask at 00:00 UTC on November 4, as results came in, and 2.3 to 3.9 cents a day later. Its contract on a law before 2028 was quoted at 29 to 31 cents at 00:00 UTC on November 3 and 16 to 18 cents at 18:00 UTC on November 4. It has since recovered to 18 to 20 cents.

If no law passes, the fallback is agency rulemaking. The CFTC sent a crypto asset rulemaking to the White House regulatory office for review on September 17, and the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets was open for comment until October 20, per Orrick, which adds that "a durable framework ultimately requires Congressional action."

## Do Polymarket and Kalshi agree?

On the 2026 outcome, both say no law, with Kalshi about 1.3 points higher. That gap has been wider. From September 11 to 14, the days before the vote, Polymarket traded between 16.5% and 21.5% while Kalshi's 2026 contract last traded at 39 cents at the end of September 13 (UTC), on a day with about 113,000 contracts traded. Before the election, Kalshi sat near 6% against 2.5% to 3.5% on Polymarket.

Kalshi's broader rules explain some of that, since a successor bill could count there and not on Polymarket. Before 2027 the difference is small, because the bill the Senate voted on in September is H.R. 3633 itself. Kalshi pricing long shots above Polymarket is the same pattern we see on bitcoin and ether tails, which we argue in [our opinion piece on the cross-venue gap](/kalshi-polymarket-tail-gap-opinion/) reflects who trades where.

## How much money is behind these prices?

- **Polymarket Clarity Act contract:** $25.2 million traded since January, about $4.78 million in open interest, and $225,737 traded in the week to November 11. That is more than ten times the $2.46 million on Polymarket's [2026 Solana price ladder](/odds/what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2027/) and about 40 times its [2026 XRP ladder](/odds/what-price-will-xrp-hit-before-2027/), and far more than Polymarket's contracts on China lifting its bitcoin ban ($1.13 million) or a US bitcoin reserve ($65,887).
- **Kalshi market structure series:** about 5.68 million contracts traded across all dates. The January 1, 2027 contract accounts for 2.54 million; the 2028 contract 145,510.
- **Related markets:** Polymarket's "How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?" has traded $141,906, with more than 60 votes at about 4.5%. A US national bitcoin reserve before 2027 trades at 3.45% on Polymarket ($65,887 traded) and 3.7% on Kalshi (200,770 contracts).

Kalshi's 2027 and 2028 rungs are thin: none has traded more than 171,000 contracts, and spreads run 1 to 5 cents. Treat the 2027 curve as a rough shape.

## What these prices do not tell you

A 2.15% price is what the marginal trader will pay for a contract that pays $1 if the bill is signed by December 31. It says nothing about what a 2027 bill would contain, and it moved from 81.5% to 4.85% in seven months. Polymarket's contract and Kalshi's ladder also answer different questions, so match the bill and the deadline before reading two numbers as the same bet.


## FAQ

### Will the Clarity Act pass in 2026?

Prediction markets price it as very unlikely. As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket gave H.R. 3633 a 2.15% chance of being signed into law by December 31, 2026, and Kalshi's contract on a crypto market structure law before January 1, 2027 traded at about 3.45%.

### What happened to the Clarity Act in the Senate?

On September 15, 2026, a cloture motion to begin debate failed 49 to 50, short of the 60 votes needed. Disputes over ethics rules for officials' crypto holdings and stablecoin yield were the main obstacles, and Sen. Thom Tillis entered a motion to reconsider to keep the bill alive.

### What are the odds of a crypto market structure law in 2027?

Kalshi's ladder, as of November 11, 2026, prices a qualifying law at 9.5% before April 1, 2027, 12% before July 1, 16.5% before October 1, and 19% before January 1, 2028. Its contract counts any bill that splits digital-asset oversight between agencies and classifies tokens.

### How did the 2026 midterms affect the Clarity Act odds?

Democrats won both chambers on November 3, 2026. Kalshi's 2026 contract fell from about 6% to about 3% within a day, and its contract on a law before 2028 fell from about 30% to about 17%, before recovering to about 19% by November 11.

### What is the Clarity Act?

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, is a crypto market structure bill that passed the House 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025. It would set out which federal regulator oversees digital assets and when a token is treated as a security or a commodity.

## Sources

- [Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [Polymarket Gamma API: event clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [Polymarket CLOB price history, Clarity Act Yes token](https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [Will the Clarity Act become law? (KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE), market data and rules](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE&with_nested_markets=true), Kalshi, 2026-11-11
- [KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE daily and hourly candlesticks](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE/markets/KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27/candlesticks), Kalshi, 2026-11-11
- [When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act? (KXCLARITYVOTE), market data](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXCLARITYVOTE&with_nested_markets=true), Kalshi, 2026-11-11
- [Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026? (KXBTCRESERVE), market data](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXBTCRESERVE&with_nested_markets=true), Kalshi, 2026-11-11
- [Polymarket Gamma API: US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [Polymarket Gamma API: How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=how-many-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729193533306), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [Polymarket Gamma API: What price will Solana hit in 2026? and What price will XRP hit in 2026?](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=what-price-will-solana-hit-before-2027), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [Polymarket Gamma API: Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027), Polymarket, 2026-11-11
- [The CLARITY Act Stalls in the Senate: What's Next for Digital Asset Regulation](https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation), Orrick, 2026-10-02
- [Senate Banking Committee advances landmark crypto market structure bill, garners some Democratic support](https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-05-14-senate-banking-committee-advances-landmark-crypto-market-structure-bill-garners-some-democratic-support-401341), The Block, 2026-05-14
- [Clarity Act preliminary vote falls short in Senate amid ethics fight over Trump's crypto wealth](https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-15-clarity-act-preliminary-vote-falls-short-in-senate-amid-ethics-fight-over-trumps-crypto-wealth-415010), The Block, 2026-09-15
- [CLARITY Act cloture vote fails 49-50](https://www.fintechweekly.com/magazine/articles/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026), FinTech Weekly, 2026-09-23
- [Democrats win full control of Congress, ushering in a new era of divided government](https://www.opb.org/article/2026/11/04/2026-midterms-democrats-win-the-senate/), OPB (NPR), 2026-11-04
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