# CryptoPrediction

> Live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto events: price ladders, biggest moves, and cross-venue comparisons, with history.

CryptoPrediction (cryptoprediction.news) is published by CryptoPrediction Desk. Articles are AI-assisted, sourced, and reviewed before publication; see https://cryptoprediction.news/editorial-policy/. Market data pages are generated from public Polymarket and Kalshi data and show the time they were last refreshed.

## Data pages

- [Crypto odds board](https://cryptoprediction.news/): Open crypto markets on Polymarket ranked by 24-hour volume, with implied probability and 7-day change.
- [Crypto market pages](https://cryptoprediction.news/odds/): One page per crypto prediction market with full price history and every outcome.
- [Crypto movers](https://cryptoprediction.news/movers/): Biggest 24-hour and 7-day probability swings in crypto markets.
- [Bitcoin prediction market odds](https://cryptoprediction.news/bitcoin/): Every open Bitcoin market we track, the Polymarket vs Kalshi gap on the 2026 high and low, and our Bitcoin coverage.
- [Ethereum prediction market odds](https://cryptoprediction.news/ethereum/): Every open Ethereum market we track, the Polymarket vs Kalshi gap on the 2026 high and low, and our Ethereum coverage.
- [Polymarket vs Kalshi](https://cryptoprediction.news/compare/): Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 highs and lows priced on both venues, rung by rung, with each venue's resolution rules.

## Articles

- [Clarity Act Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price After the Midterms](https://cryptoprediction.news/clarity-act-odds.md): As of November 11, 2026, prediction markets give the Clarity Act almost no chance of becoming law this year: 2.15% on Polymarket and 3.45% on Kalshi. The odds fell from 81.5% in February after a failed Senate vote and the Democratic midterm sweep. Kalshi puts 19% on any crypto market structure law before 2028.
- [Ethereum 2026 High and Low: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price](https://cryptoprediction.news/ethereum-2026-ladder.md): As of November 11, 2026, with ether near $2,064, prediction markets treat its 2026 high as already set in January. A new high above $3,500 trades at 3.55% on Polymarket and 5.5% on Kalshi. A drop below $1,500 trades at 13.25% and 16.5%, and a dip to $2,000 before year-end at 81.5%.
- [Are 5-Minute Crypto Contracts a Market or a Slot Machine?](https://cryptoprediction.news/five-minute-contracts-opinion.md): Our view: five-minute crypto up/down contracts behave more like a slot machine than a market. They forecast nothing anyone uses, hedge little, and the best evidence shows retail funding a small group of faster traders. The CFTC should test them against its own June 2026 standard for games of chance. Fifteen-minute contracts with averaged settlement are a closer call.
- [Hyperliquid HIP-4 Outcome Markets vs Polymarket and Kalshi](https://cryptoprediction.news/hyperliquid-hip4-vs-polymarket-kalshi.md): HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's fully collateralized outcome contract: no leverage, no liquidations, settled by the protocol or by a deployer staking 500,000 HYPE. In the 30 days to November 10, 2026 it traded $125.3 million, per DefiLlama, against $17.8 billion on Kalshi and $5.9 billion on Polymarket. Its fees are far lower, and most of its volume is sports.
- [Why Kalshi Prices Crypto Long Shots Higher Than Polymarket](https://cryptoprediction.news/kalshi-polymarket-tail-gap-opinion.md): Our view: Kalshi prices bitcoin and ether tail outcomes higher than Polymarket because its marginal buyer of long shots is a US retail taker with one venue, and nobody is paid to close the gap. On November 11, 2026, Kalshi was higher on 18 of 19 matched rungs; after both venues' taker fees, the executable gap was worth about $38.
- [Phantom's Kalshi Integration and Jupiter Parlays, Explained](https://cryptoprediction.news/phantom-kalshi-jupiter-parlays-wallet-flows.md): Phantom started rolling out Kalshi's regulated prediction markets to eligible US users on October 23, 2026, funded from its CASH stablecoin balance, under CFTC no-action relief extended to all similar software providers on September 17. Jupiter Predict, closed to US wallets, offers Polymarket-sourced markets and Combos, parlays of 2 to 50 sports picks.
- [Polymarket Cuts Staff and Moves Its V2 Market Switch to November 23](https://cryptoprediction.news/polymarket-layoffs-v2-rollout.md): Polymarket confirmed on November 11, 2026 that it has laid off staff and ended contractor agreements in a reorganization, and it has rescheduled the switch of new markets to its Protocol V2 smart contracts into three waves on November 23, November 24 and December 1. As of November 11, every newly created market we checked still ran on v1.
- [Bitcoin Year-End Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price for 2026](https://cryptoprediction.news/bitcoin-year-end-odds.md): As of November 10, 2026, with bitcoin near $74,000, prediction markets price a quiet finish. Kalshi's year-end brackets put the most weight on $70,000 to $75,000 (19%) and about 5% on a close at or above $100,000. Polymarket gives a $100,000 touch before 2027 4.5% and a dip to $70,000 69.5%.
- [Short-Duration Crypto Contracts: How 5- and 15-Minute Bets Took Off](https://cryptoprediction.news/short-duration-crypto-contracts.md): Five-minute, 15-minute and hourly crypto contracts became the main engine of crypto volume on prediction markets in 2026. Kalshi's monthly crypto volume rose from $340.2 million in January to $6.1 billion in July. The widely cited 44x jump compares one Kalshi record day with New Year's Day, and a Stanford study found signs of settlement manipulation in Polymarket's five-minute contract.

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