Phantom's Kalshi Integration and Jupiter Parlays, Explained

Two Solana-based apps now sell prediction markets, to opposite sets of users. Phantom began rolling out Kalshi's CFTC-regulated markets to eligible US users on October 23, 2026, funded from its Phantom Cash balance. Jupiter's Predict, which does not serve US wallets, offers Polymarket-sourced markets and Combos, parlays of 2 to 50 sports and esports picks. A September 17 CFTC staff letter extends the arrangement behind Phantom's launch to any wallet or app that meets its conditions. The volume these front ends move is still small next to the venues behind them.

What the market is pricing

Bitcoin contracts a user could reach through each app, read from Kalshi's and Polymarket's public APIs between 22:41 and 22:50 UTC on November 11, 2026. Prices are midpoints of the best bid and ask.

Contract	Venue	Reachable through	Price (%)	As of
BTC at or above $74,000 at 5 p.m. EST, Nov 12	Kalshi	Phantom	50.5	Nov 11, 2026
BTC at 6 p.m. EST at or above its 5:45 p.m. level, Nov 11	Kalshi	Phantom	67.5	Nov 11, 2026
BTC reaches $85,000 in November	Polymarket	Jupiter	12.5	Nov 11, 2026
BTC above $74,000 at noon ET, Nov 12	Polymarket	Jupiter (Polymarket-sourced)	56.5	Nov 11, 2026

The two daily contracts differ in more than venue. Kalshi's settles on a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' bitcoin index before 5 p.m. EST, per its market rules; Polymarket's settles on one Binance one-minute candle at noon ET, five hours earlier. Jupiter's Prediction API quoted the $85,000 rung at 13 cents to buy and 12 cents to sell, the same as Polymarket's own book, before Jupiter's fee. More bitcoin odds are on our bitcoin page and odds pages.

What does Phantom's Kalshi integration let users do?

Phantom's Predict tab is a front end for Kalshi. Kalshi handles customer diligence, approves and holds trading accounts, and executes the trades users submit through Phantom, according to Phantom's October 28 announcement. At launch it listed:

• crypto: short-dated up-or-down markets on assets such as bitcoin, including contracts that settle every 15 minutes;
• professional and college sports;
• economics, politics, AI and current events.

Trades are funded from the user's Phantom Cash balance, held in the CASH stablecoin, and cash-outs return there. Phantom describes CASH as "a fully backed, USD-pegged stablecoin on Solana" in its Phantom Cash launch post. The app adds market chat, live scores and trades that work like a token swap, Phantom said. Phantom did not publish fees for the product. "Crypto traders already think in short windows, like where Bitcoin will be in 15 minutes," said Femi Awomosu, Phantom's head of product for trading.

Who is it open to?

Eligible US users, with conditions. Kalshi's state restrictions apply by market category, so some markets are not available in every state, Phantom said. Users with a Kalshi account can link it and skip verification, and Phantom Cash users already verified with Phantom's other regulated partners can share those details with Kalshi. Phantom said on October 23 that access would expand over the following few weeks, so not every eligible user had the tab on day one.

What did the CFTC allow?

The legal basis is CFTC Staff Letter 26-09, issued to Phantom on March 17, 2026. In it, the Market Participants Division said it would not recommend enforcement against Phantom for failing to register as an introducing broker, under ten conditions. Three matter for where the money goes:

• Custody stays with the exchange. Users trade "either directly as a member of the DCM or indirectly as a customer" of a registered broker, and funds sit with the exchange's clearing house or a futures commission merchant. "At no point would Phantom hold, control, or take into custody User assets," the letter says.
• Revenue can be shared. Exchanges "may also agree to share a specified portion of their relevant revenues with Phantom," and Phantom may charge users "a transaction-based fee directly."
• Users keep direct access. They must remain able to reach the exchange without Phantom.

On September 17, CFTC Staff Letter 26-25 extended a no-action position "on substantially the same terms" to all "Passive Software Providers," after other developers asked for the same treatment. The letter adds that these providers "are not limited to providers of crypto asset related software." Phantom notes that its relief "does not cover DeFi derivatives or tokenized prediction markets," per its relief announcement.

Our read: Letter 26-25 turns Phantom's arrangement into a template any wallet, broker app or chat app can use to sell Kalshi contracts and take a cut, without registering.

What are Jupiter's parlays?

Jupiter calls them Combos. A combo is "a single bet on 2 to 50 picks from sports and esports games, including several picks from the same game," and every pick must win for it to pay, according to Jupiter's Predict documentation as of November 11, 2026. The terms:

• minimum stake of 1 USDC, or another token that swaps into at least $1; no set maximum;
• the combo is "priced again after payment, so your payout may be lower if odds move";
• combos cannot be sold early and run until every game settles;
• winnings arrive in the wallet automatically in USDC.

Jupiter's documentation does not say who prices or takes the other side of a combo, and we could not find a dated launch announcement. Parlays are spreading across venues: Kalshi has a Combos product, and Polymarket charges combos their own taker rate of 0.05 under its fee schedule.

The rest of Jupiter Predict draws on outside venues. Its browse markets are "currently sourced from Polymarket," alongside short-duration crypto markets and other integrations. Its developer API lists Kalshi as a second provider. Jupiter Forecast, its own Solana market, runs 15-minute bitcoin up-or-down rounds settled from Chainlink's BTC/USD stream, per its developer docs.

Fees vary by product, per Jupiter's fee page: on Polymarket-sourced markets, Polymarket's taker fee plus a Jupiter builder fee of 2% of trade value on buys and sells; no fee on sports ticket markets, whose odds come from "a separate sportsbook provider"; 0.1% on Forecast; and 1% of winnings in the one-minute Arcade.

Who can use Jupiter Predict?

Not US users. Jupiter "restricted United States and South Korea IPs" from its prediction API, its developer documentation says, and its terms of use list the United States among prohibited localities and forbid using a VPN to get around the ban. The two Solana products sit on opposite sides of the US line: Phantom's serves US users through a regulated exchange, and Jupiter's serves everyone else through Polymarket's international book.

What does this mean for where volume comes from?

So far, wallet front ends are distribution. DefiLlama's trackers for the 30 days to November 9 or 10, 2026:

Tracker	30-day volume	Type
Kalshi	$17.78 billion	Venue
Polymarket US	$3.17 billion	Venue
Polymarket international	$2.72 billion	Venue
Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcomes	$125.3 million	Venue
Polymarket Combos	$38.9 million	Venue product
Jupiter Prediction	$7.3 million	Front end (Solana)
MetaMask Predictions	$3.6 million	Front end (Polygon)
DFlow Prediction Market	$0	Solana tokenized markets

Jupiter Prediction's monthly volume peaked at $13.8 million in June 2026 and was $7.8 million in October, per DefiLlama, which counts fees passed through Jupiter as paid to Kalshi and Polymarket. DFlow's tracker shows $17.3 million since November 2025 and nothing in the last 30 days. Phantom's Kalshi flow is not reported separately: it lands in Kalshi's own books and is counted in Kalshi's total.

Three things follow, in our read:

1. US flow from wallets goes to Kalshi. Phantom's model keeps custody at the exchange, and Kalshi already had 73% of prediction-market volume in the third quarter of 2026, per a Predicted report cited by Front Office Sports. Letter 26-25 lets more apps join that path with revenue sharing.
2. Offshore flow from wallets goes to Polymarket. Jupiter routes to Polymarket's book at Polymarket's prices and adds a 2% fee, so what the wallet adds is convenience and parlays.
3. Short crypto contracts are the hook. Phantom led with 15-minute bitcoin markets, and Jupiter runs 5- and 15-minute rounds plus one-minute Arcade bets. Our short-duration contracts report covers how that format became the biggest driver of crypto volume, and our opinion piece argues the fastest versions work like slot machines.

Hyperliquid's outcome markets are the other route in: on September 8, Nansen became the first outside front end for Outcome's HIP-4 markets, crypto.news reported. Our HIP-4 report covers that venue.

What to watch

• Who files under Letter 26-25. Each provider must file a notice with the CFTC; new wallet or app integrations with Kalshi or other exchanges would follow.
• Phantom's fees. The letter allows a per-trade charge and revenue sharing; Phantom had published neither as of November 11.
• Combos pricing. Whether Jupiter discloses who quotes its parlays, and what margin is built into the payout.
• Solana-native markets. Whether tokenized prediction markets on Solana, outside Phantom's relief, regain volume.