Bitcoin prediction market odds
As of November 12, 2026, we track 12 open Bitcoin prediction markets on Polymarket, with $841K traded in the last 24 hours. On the "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" ladder, the closest-to-even rung is "↓ 70,000" at 66%. The ladder has 47 price levels and $84.4M in total volume.
| Market | Implied chance | 7 days |
|---|---|---|
| What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?↓ 72,000 | 46% | new |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?↓ 70,000 | 66% | +32 pts |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in November?↓ 70,000 | 52% | +33 pts |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 2% | 0 pts |
| Bitcoin all time high by ___?December 31, 2026 | 2% | −1 pts |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | 33% | −9 pts |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | 1% | 0 pts |
| Bitcoin best month in 2026?August | 92% | +1 pts |
| Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026S&P 500 | 89% | +4 pts |
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k?by December 31, 2027 | 22% | 0 pts |
| Satoshi's identity be proven by...?December 31 | 2% | 0 pts |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?1M+ | 0.7% | −1 pts |
Polymarket vs Kalshi on Bitcoin
- Bitcoin 2026 high
Widest gap at $100,000: 8.5% on Kalshi, 4.5% on Polymarket (+4 pts).
- Bitcoin 2026 low
Widest gap at $55,000: 12.5% on Kalshi, 8.5% on Polymarket (+4 pts).
Our Bitcoin coverage
- Nov 11, 2026 / Opinion
Are 5-Minute Crypto Contracts a Market or a Slot Machine?Our view: five-minute crypto up/down contracts behave more like a slot machine than a market. They forecast nothing anyone uses, hedge little, and the best evidence shows retail funding a small group of faster traders. The CFTC should test them against its own June 2026 standard for games of chance. Fifteen-minute contracts with averaged settlement are a closer call.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Venues
Hyperliquid HIP-4 Outcome Markets vs Polymarket and KalshiHIP-4 is Hyperliquid's fully collateralized outcome contract: no leverage, no liquidations, settled by the protocol or by a deployer staking 500,000 HYPE. In the 30 days to November 10, 2026 it traded $125.3 million, per DefiLlama, against $17.8 billion on Kalshi and $5.9 billion on Polymarket. Its fees are far lower, and most of its volume is sports.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Opinion
Why Kalshi Prices Crypto Long Shots Higher Than PolymarketOur view: Kalshi prices bitcoin and ether tail outcomes higher than Polymarket because its marginal buyer of long shots is a US retail taker with one venue, and nobody is paid to close the gap. On November 11, 2026, Kalshi was higher on 18 of 19 matched rungs; after both venues' taker fees, the executable gap was worth about $38.
- Nov 10, 2026 / Odds
Bitcoin Year-End Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price for 2026As of November 10, 2026, with bitcoin near $74,000, prediction markets price a quiet finish. Kalshi's year-end brackets put the most weight on $70,000 to $75,000 (19%) and about 5% on a close at or above $100,000. Polymarket gives a $100,000 touch before 2027 4.5% and a dip to $70,000 69.5%.
- Nov 10, 2026 / Contracts
Short-Duration Crypto Contracts: How 5- and 15-Minute Bets Took OffFive-minute, 15-minute and hourly crypto contracts became the main engine of crypto volume on prediction markets in 2026. Kalshi's monthly crypto volume rose from $340.2 million in January to $6.1 billion in July. The widely cited 44x jump compares one Kalshi record day with New Year's Day, and a Stanford study found signs of settlement manipulation in Polymarket's five-minute contract.
Recently resolved
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 2-8?
Questions
- What do prediction markets say about Bitcoin?
- As of November 12, 2026, we track 12 open Bitcoin prediction markets on Polymarket, with $841K traded in the last 24 hours. On the "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" ladder, the closest-to-even rung is "↓ 70,000" at 66%. The ladder has 47 price levels and $84.4M in total volume.
- What are the odds: Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 66% as of November 12, 2026, up 32 points from a week earlier. A 66 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 34% as of November 12, 2026, up 16 points from a week earlier. A 34 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
Prices are implied probabilities from Polymarket order books: the bid-ask midpoint when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Markets with under $250,000 in lifetime volume and contracts that last minutes or hours are left out. Not trading advice.