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Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?" at 1%, unchanged over the past week. $1.1M has traded on this market.

Last 90 days

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: YES price over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 14, 2026Sep 28, 2026Nov 12, 2026
The YES price moved from 3% to 1% over 90 days (−1 pts). High: 5% on September 25, 2026. Low: 1% on November 5, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
August 14, 20262.6%
August 21, 20262.6%
August 28, 20262.1%
September 5, 20262.1%
September 12, 20262.4%
September 19, 20262.5%
September 26, 20262.9%
October 4, 20261.6%
October 11, 20262.4%
October 19, 20262.1%
October 28, 20262.1%
November 5, 20261.3%
November 12, 20261.5%

The contract

OutcomeChance24h7 days24h volume
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?1%new0 pts$234

Questions

What are the odds: Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 12, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.