Polymarket vs Kalshi: crypto odds compared
As of November 11, 2026, Kalshi prices the widest-gap level above Polymarket in 4 of 4 matched questions. The largest gap is +3 pts on Bitcoin's 2026 high at $100,000.
| Question | Levels on both | Widest gap at | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin 2026 high | 7 | $100,000 | 5.5% | 8.5% | +3 pts |
| Bitcoin 2026 low | 4 | $50,000 | 5.1% | 7.5% | +2 pts |
| Ethereum 2026 high | 5 | $3,500 | 3.1% | 5.5% | +2 pts |
| Ethereum 2026 low | 3 | $1,250 | 6.5% | 8.5% | +2 pts |
Why the venues disagree
The two exchanges have different traders, fees and access rules. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that takes dollars; Polymarket's global site settles in USDC on Polygon. Moving money between them takes time and capital, so gaps can last for weeks. The contracts also resolve on different price sources, quoted on each comparison page. A gap is not free money: fees, the spread and the rule differences can absorb it.
Method
Polymarket "reach" and "dip to" rungs are matched to Kalshi strikes at the same level, rounded to the nearest $10. Prices are the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Closed rungs are left out. The page refreshes every hour.
Questions
- Do Polymarket and Kalshi show the same crypto odds?
- As of November 11, 2026, Kalshi prices the widest-gap level above Polymarket in 4 of 4 matched questions. The largest gap is +3 pts on Bitcoin's 2026 high at $100,000.
- How are Polymarket and Kalshi crypto markets matched?
- Each Polymarket rung is matched to the Kalshi strike at the same price level, rounded to the nearest $10. Prices are the bid-ask midpoint when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade.
By coin: Bitcoin odds / Ethereum odds