Crypto odds board
The 30 most-traded open crypto markets on Polymarket, as of November 12, 2026. For ladders, the row shows the rung closest to even money. Fetched Nov 12, 2026, 04:34 UTC
Analysis
- Nov 11, 2026 / Odds
Clarity Act Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price After the MidtermsAs of November 11, 2026, prediction markets give the Clarity Act almost no chance of becoming law this year: 2.15% on Polymarket and 3.45% on Kalshi. The odds fell from 81.5% in February after a failed Senate vote and the Democratic midterm sweep. Kalshi puts 19% on any crypto market structure law before 2028.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Odds
Ethereum 2026 High and Low: What Polymarket and Kalshi PriceAs of November 11, 2026, with ether near $2,064, prediction markets treat its 2026 high as already set in January. A new high above $3,500 trades at 3.55% on Polymarket and 5.5% on Kalshi. A drop below $1,500 trades at 13.25% and 16.5%, and a dip to $2,000 before year-end at 81.5%.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Opinion
Are 5-Minute Crypto Contracts a Market or a Slot Machine?Our view: five-minute crypto up/down contracts behave more like a slot machine than a market. They forecast nothing anyone uses, hedge little, and the best evidence shows retail funding a small group of faster traders. The CFTC should test them against its own June 2026 standard for games of chance. Fifteen-minute contracts with averaged settlement are a closer call.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Venues
Hyperliquid HIP-4 Outcome Markets vs Polymarket and KalshiHIP-4 is Hyperliquid's fully collateralized outcome contract: no leverage, no liquidations, settled by the protocol or by a deployer staking 500,000 HYPE. In the 30 days to November 10, 2026 it traded $125.3 million, per DefiLlama, against $17.8 billion on Kalshi and $5.9 billion on Polymarket. Its fees are far lower, and most of its volume is sports.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Opinion
Why Kalshi Prices Crypto Long Shots Higher Than PolymarketOur view: Kalshi prices bitcoin and ether tail outcomes higher than Polymarket because its marginal buyer of long shots is a US retail taker with one venue, and nobody is paid to close the gap. On November 11, 2026, Kalshi was higher on 18 of 19 matched rungs; after both venues' taker fees, the executable gap was worth about $38.
- Nov 11, 2026 / Flows
Phantom's Kalshi Integration and Jupiter Parlays, ExplainedPhantom started rolling out Kalshi's regulated prediction markets to eligible US users on October 23, 2026, funded from its CASH stablecoin balance, under CFTC no-action relief extended to all similar software providers on September 17. Jupiter Predict, closed to US wallets, offers Polymarket-sourced markets and Combos, parlays of 2 to 50 sports picks.
Biggest moves today
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___?
November 30, 2026: 89% +19 pts
- What price will Ethereum hit November 9-15?
↑ 2,200: 15% −13 pts
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?
↓ 72,000: 46% −11 pts
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?
↑ 76,000: 35% −9 pts
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?
↓ 70,000: 16% −7 pts
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?
↑ 78,000: 11% −5 pts
- What price will Ethereum hit November 9-15?
↑ 2,300: 5% −4 pts
- What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
↓ 67,500: 30% −3 pts