Ethereum 2026 High and Low: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price

As of just after midnight ET on November 11, 2026, prediction markets price ether's 2026 high as already behind it and its 2026 low as probably behind it too. A trade above $3,500 before 2027 costs 3.55 cents on Polymarket and 5.5 cents on Kalshi. A break below $1,500, under this year's June low, costs 13.25 cents and 16.5 cents. For the seven weeks left, the action is closer to the current price: a dip to $2,000 trades at 81.5% and a touch of $3,000 at 9%.

All prices are midpoints of the best bid and ask, read from each venue's public market data at about 12:07 a.m. ET on November 11, 2026 (05:07 UTC). Every spread we used was 10 cents or less. The Polymarket figures match the rounded odds on its event page, and the same ladder updates hourly on our live Ethereum ladder page.

What the market is pricing

Market	Venue	Yes price (%)	As of
Touch $3,000 before 2027	Polymarket	9	Nov 11, 2026
Touch $3,500 before 2027	Polymarket	3.55	Nov 11, 2026
Above $3,500 in 2026	Kalshi	5.5	Nov 11, 2026
Touch $5,000 before 2027	Polymarket	1.55	Nov 11, 2026
Dip to $2,000 before 2027	Polymarket	81.5	Nov 11, 2026
Dip to $1,750 before 2027	Polymarket	26.5	Nov 11, 2026
Dip to $1,500 before 2027	Polymarket	13.25	Nov 11, 2026
Below $1,500 in 2026	Kalshi	16.5	Nov 11, 2026
Year-end close $1,750 to $1,999.99	Kalshi	22.15	Nov 11, 2026
Year-end close $2,000 to $2,249.99	Kalshi	23.65	Nov 11, 2026
Year-end close $2,250 to $2,499.99	Kalshi	15.55	Nov 11, 2026

Every rung cited in this piece is in the markets data for this article.

Where is Ethereum trading now?

CoinGecko showed ether at $2,064.48 at 12:07 a.m. ET on November 11, down 19.5% over 30 days and 42.1% over a year. Binance's ETH/USDT pair, which settles Polymarket's ladder, traded as low as $2,006.00 in the 24 hours to that time. Fortune put ether at $2,090.24 at 7:15 a.m. ET on November 10, down 15.95% from $2,487.08 a month earlier and 41.41% from $3,567.63 a year earlier. CoinGecko lists the all-time high as $4,946.05 on August 24, 2025.

CoinGecko's daily history puts this year's highest daily price at about $3,352 on January 15 and the lowest at about $1,566 on June 26. Polymarket's oldest rungs back that up: its $3,500 and $1,500 contracts, open since November 24, 2025, have not been hit on any Binance one-minute candle.

From $2,064, $2,000 is 3.1% away, $1,750 is 15.2% below, $1,500 is 27.3% below, $3,000 is 45.3% above and $3,500 is 69.5% above.

What does the ladder imply about the 2026 high and low?

Polymarket's "What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?" pays on any Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle that trades through a level before 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, counting only price action after each rung opened. Kalshi's paired "How high" and "How low" contracts ask the same kind of question on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index, with a trimmed-mean calculation set out in the contract terms.

On the high, both venues give ether about a 1-in-18 to 1-in-28 chance of a new 2026 peak above $3,500. Beyond that the ladder flattens into a floor: $4,000 at 2.15%, $5,000 at 1.55%, $6,000 at 1.25% and $10,000 at 0.35%. Our read: prices that cluster near 1 cent over a $5,000 span say more about what a lottery-style contract costs to hold than about the odds of each level.

On the low, a break below the June low is the larger risk the market prices, at 13.25% to 16.5%. Deeper rungs fall off: $1,250 at 6.5% (Kalshi 7.5%), $1,000 at 3.3% (Kalshi 4.5%) and $500 at 0.95%.

Where is the market most uncertain?

The market is least certain between $1,750 and $2,000 on the downside. The $2,000 dip trades at 81.5% and the $1,750 dip at 26.5%, a 55-point drop over $250. By straight-line interpolation (our estimate), the ladder crosses 50% near $1,860. No upside rung sits anywhere close to even: the nearest, $3,000, trades at 9%.

Combining two rungs gives a floor on the quiet case. If a dip to $1,750 is 26.5% likely and a touch of $3,000 is 9%, the chance that ether trades between those two levels for the rest of the year is at least 64.5%. That is arithmetic on the posted prices, with no view of our own.

Kalshi's "Ethereum price at the end of 2026" market adds the close. Its 18 brackets settle on a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before midnight on January 1, 2027, and only one can win. The midpoints summed to 100.8 cents, so we scaled them to 100%:

• The median falls inside $2,000 to $2,249.99, the bracket ether sits in now.
• About 61% of the probability sits between $1,750 and $2,500, and about 40% below $2,000.
• About 6% sits at or above $3,000, and about 7% below $1,500.
• The "$5,000 or above" bracket trades at 0.75 cents, while each $250 bracket from $3,750 to $4,999.99 trades at 0.05 cents. An open-ended bracket collects every outcome above it, which is one reason it prices above its neighbors.

The two contract types agree: each touch price sits above the matching close probability, as it should.

How have the odds moved in 2026?

Polymarket's price history for the open rungs, read daily, and its resolved rungs give the year's arc:

• January 15: The $3,500 rung traded at 91.5%, with ether near its high for the year. It fell to 53% by February 1 and 35% by February 15.
• July 1: With ether near $1,570, the $1,500 dip traded at 91.6%. It has not been hit.
• July 25: Bitcoin.com News reported ether near $1,860, Polymarket's $3,500 rung at 12% and its $1,500 dip at 47%, and Kalshi's above-$3,500 contract at 15%.
• August 19 to September 21: Rungs opened June 8 for $2,000, $2,250, $2,500 and $2,750 resolved Yes as ether rallied.
• October 1: The $3,000 rung traded at 66% and the $1,500 dip at 6.45%.
• October 29: A dip to $2,250, opened August 25, resolved Yes.
• November 1: $3,000 at 18.5%, $3,500 at 8%.

Since October 1, the $3,000 rung has fallen from 66% to 9% and the $1,500 dip has roughly doubled.

Do Polymarket and Kalshi agree?

Broadly, with Kalshi richer in the tails, the same pattern our bitcoin year-end piece found. On the eight levels both venues list, Kalshi is higher on six:

Level	Polymarket (%)	Kalshi (%)	Gap (points)
Above $3,500	3.55	5.5	+1.95
Above $4,000	2.15	2.5	+0.35
Above $4,500	1.75	1.5	−0.25
Above $5,000	1.55	2	+0.45
Above $6,000	1.25	1.5	+0.25
Below $1,500	13.25	16.5	+3.25
Below $1,250	6.5	7.5	+1
Below $1,000	3.3	4.5	+1.2

Most of the upside gaps are smaller than Kalshi's own spreads: its rungs from $3,750 to $6,000 are quoted 1 or 2 cents wide in whole-cent ticks, and $3,750, $4,000 and $4,250 all sit at 2.5%. The two largest gaps, at $3,500 and $1,500, are wider than both venues' spreads (1 cent on Kalshi, half a cent or less on Polymarket) and sit on the rungs nearest the current price. Settlement sources (Binance ETH/USDT against a CF Benchmarks index) and fees also differ. Our read is that the $1,500 gap reflects split liquidity more than a clean arbitrage; we could not test that from the data.

Polymarket's own ladder has two kinks. Its $6,000 rung (1.25%) trades above its $5,500 rung (1.15%), though any touch of $6,000 also touches $5,500. And its $800 dip trades at 2.75% against 1.35% for $700, only $100 lower; the $800 rung has traded $1.75 million and the $700 rung $17,508.

How much money is behind these prices?

• Polymarket ladder: $19.8 million traded across all rungs since November 24, 2025, about $4.6 million in open interest and $184,524 in the 24 hours to our read. The busiest rungs are the dips to $1,500 ($3.42 million) and $1,000 ($2.47 million). The $3,000 rung has traded $352,735.
• Kalshi high and low: about 3.0 million contracts on the high side and 1.38 million on the low side, each paying $1. Above $3,500 has traded 641,939 contracts and below $1,500 569,354.
• Kalshi year-end brackets: about 12.5 million contracts, with $1,750 to $2,249.99 the busiest range.

That is about a quarter of the $84.1 million Polymarket's bitcoin ladder had traded by November 10, so ether's odds rest on thinner books. The board tracks both ladders side by side.

What these prices do not tell you

A 9% price on $3,000 is what the marginal trader will pay for that contract, after fees, and the same rung traded at 66% six weeks ago. Touch and close contracts answer different questions, and rungs opened on different dates, so match contract type, price source and start date before reading two numbers as the same bet.