Opinion

Our view on crypto contracts and the venues that list them, labeled as opinion.

• Nov 11, 2026
  Are 5-Minute Crypto Contracts a Market or a Slot Machine?

  Our view: five-minute crypto up/down contracts behave more like a slot machine than a market. They forecast nothing anyone uses, hedge little, and the best evidence shows retail funding a small group of faster traders. The CFTC should test them against its own June 2026 standard for games of chance. Fifteen-minute contracts with averaged settlement are a closer call.

• Nov 11, 2026
  Why Kalshi Prices Crypto Long Shots Higher Than Polymarket

  Our view: Kalshi prices bitcoin and ether tail outcomes higher than Polymarket because its marginal buyer of long shots is a US retail taker with one venue, and nobody is paid to close the gap. On November 11, 2026, Kalshi was higher on 18 of 19 matched rungs; after both venues' taker fees, the executable gap was worth about $38.