Bitcoin Year-End Odds: What Polymarket and Kalshi Price for 2026

As of the evening of November 10, 2026, prediction markets price bitcoin to finish the year close to where it trades now, a little under $75,000, and give a return to six figures long odds. Kalshi's year-end bracket market puts its heaviest weight on a close between $70,000 and $74,999.99 (19%) and about 5% on a close at or above $100,000. Polymarket's touch ladder prices a trade at $100,000 before 2027 at 4.5 cents and a dip to $70,000 at 69.5 cents.

All prices below are midpoints of the best bid and ask, read from each venue's public market data at about 10:15 p.m. ET on November 10, 2026, and cross-checked against the Polymarket event page. Kalshi's website returned rate-limit errors to our requests, so Kalshi figures come from its public market-data API.

What the market is pricing

Market	Venue	Yes price (%)	As of
Year-end close $65,000 to $69,999.99	Kalshi	14	Nov 10, 2026
Year-end close $70,000 to $74,999.99	Kalshi	19	Nov 10, 2026
Year-end close $75,000 to $79,999.99	Kalshi	17	Nov 10, 2026
Year-end close $80,000 to $84,999.99	Kalshi	11	Nov 10, 2026
Touch $90,000 before 2027	Polymarket	16.5	Nov 10, 2026
Touch $100,000 before 2027	Polymarket	4.5	Nov 10, 2026
Touch above $99,999.99 in 2026	Kalshi	8.5	Nov 10, 2026
Touch $150,000 before 2027	Polymarket	0.75	Nov 10, 2026
Dip to $70,000 before 2027	Polymarket	69.5	Nov 10, 2026
Dip to $60,000 before 2027	Polymarket	22.5	Nov 10, 2026
Dip to $55,000 before 2027	Polymarket	12.5	Nov 10, 2026
Below $55,000 in 2026	Kalshi	14.5	Nov 10, 2026
New all-time high by Dec 31, 2026	Polymarket	2.25	Nov 10, 2026

The full ladder, with every rung cited in this piece, is in the markets data for this article.

Where is Bitcoin trading now?

Fortune put bitcoin at $74,260.59 at 7:15 a.m. ET on November 10, 2026, down 9.97% from $82,492.34 a month earlier and down 29.94% from $106,002.75 a year earlier. By about 10:20 p.m. ET the same day, CoinGecko showed $73,764. Fortune lists the all-time high as $126,198.07 on October 6, 2025.

That starting point matters for reading the ladder. With roughly seven weeks left, $70,000 is about 5% below the evening price and $100,000 is about 36% above it.

What does Kalshi's year-end ladder imply?

Kalshi's "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026" market splits the outcome into 28 brackets, mostly $5,000 wide, and settles on the simple average of 60 seconds of the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index before midnight ET on January 1, 2027. Because only one bracket can win, the prices form a probability distribution. The bracket midpoints summed to 101.85 cents on November 10, so the figures below are scaled to 100%.

Our read of that distribution:

• The median falls inside the $70,000 to $74,999.99 bracket, the same bracket bitcoin occupied on November 10.
• About 60% of the probability sits between $65,000 and $85,000.
• About 15% sits below $60,000, and about 5% at or above $100,000.
• The $150,000-or-above bracket trades at 0.65 cents, more than any single $5,000 bracket from $110,000 to $149,999.99. An open-ended bracket collects every outcome beyond it, which is one reason it can trade above its neighbors.

One kink stands out: $55,000 to $59,999.99 trades at 10 cents, above the 7 cents on $60,000 to $64,999.99. A smooth distribution would not do that. The data does not explain it; positioning in one bracket is a possible cause, and we could not verify it.

What does Polymarket's touch ladder imply?

Polymarket's "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" event asks a different question. Each rung pays if any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle trades through the level before 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026, counting only price action after that rung was created. Polymarket has added fresh rungs through the year as old ones resolved, so some current rungs date from June, July or August.

On the upside, $90,000 trades at 16.5%, $95,000 at 8.5%, $100,000 at 4.5%, $110,000 at 2.85%, $120,000 at 2.05% and $150,000 at 0.75%. On the downside, a dip to $70,000 trades at 69.5%, $65,000 at 37.5%, $60,000 at 22.5%, $55,000 at 12.5%, $50,000 at 5.95% and $45,000 at 2.85%.

Read together, traders give a drop of about 12% from the November 10 evening price (to $65,000) more than twice the probability of a rise of about 22% (to $90,000): 37.5% against 16.5%. A separate Polymarket contract on a new all-time high by December 31 trades at 2.25%.

How have the odds moved in 2026?

Polymarket's resolved rungs and dated press snapshots give the year's arc:

• January 2, 2026: Cointelegraph reported Polymarket odds of 80% for $100,000 and 21% for $150,000.
• February 2 to 6, 2026: Polymarket closed its dip-to-$75,000, $65,000 and $60,000 rungs as Yes.
• June 6, 2026: Kalshi's news site reported bitcoin near $62,300 and Kalshi odds of 56% for a drop below $45,000 and 42% for below $40,000. Kalshi's yearly-low market now prices below $40,000 at 4.5%.
• June 24, 2026: A dip-to-$60,000 rung created in June closed Yes.
• August 22, 2026: Prediction Hunt reported bitcoin near $77,391 and a cross-venue consensus of 23% for a dip to $55,000, down from 34% three days earlier.
• September 7, 2026: Bitcoin.com News reported Polymarket odds of 26% for $100,000 and 51% for $90,000.
• September 21, 2026: A reach-$85,000 rung created in June closed Yes.
• November 7, 2026: Bitcoin.com News reported bitcoin at $75,723 and Polymarket odds of 9% for $100,000 and 52% for a dip to $70,000.

In three days from November 7 to November 10, the $100,000 rung fell from 9% to 4.5% and the $70,000 dip rose from 52% to 69.5%.

Do Kalshi and Polymarket agree?

Roughly, though Kalshi prices both tails higher. Kalshi's "How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?" contract above $99,999.99 trades at 8.5%, against 4.5% for Polymarket's $100,000 rung and 6% for a separate Polymarket "When will Bitcoin hit $100k?" contract. On the downside, Kalshi prices below $55,000 at 14.5%, below $50,000 at 8% and below $40,000 at 4.5%; Polymarket's matching dip rungs trade at 12.5%, 5.95% and 2.55%.

There is also a cross-venue inconsistency. A touch of $100,000 must be at least as likely as a close above $100,000, yet Polymarket's 4.5% touch price sits slightly below the roughly 5% Kalshi's brackets assign to a year-end close at or above $100,000. The gap is within the venues' bid-ask spreads and fees, and the contracts settle on different prices (Binance BTC/USDT versus the CF Benchmarks index). Our read is that it reflects liquidity split across venues more than a clean mispricing.

How much money is behind these prices?

• Polymarket touch ladder: $84.1 million in total volume across all rungs since November 24, 2025, about $14.7 million in open interest and $515,000 traded in the 24 hours to November 10. Bitcoin.com reported about $82.74 million on November 7 and about $63.92 million on September 7. The busiest open rungs are the dips to $45,000 ($9.37 million) and $55,000 ($7.74 million); the $100,000 rung has traded $4.19 million.
• Kalshi year-end brackets: about 46.7 million contracts traded, each paying $1, with 280,000 to 510,000 contracts of open interest per bracket. Bitcoin.com put the market's volume at about $46.01 million on November 7 and about $35 million on September 7. The $75,000 to $79,999.99 bracket is the most traded, at 3.54 million contracts.
• Kalshi high and low contracts: above $99,999.99 has traded 1.84 million contracts, below $55,000 has traded 2.05 million.

Liquidity is thin where the probabilities are small. Polymarket's $100,000 rung was quoted at 4 cents bid and 5 cents ask, a spread worth a fifth of the price. Kalshi's $150,000 touch contract was quoted at 0 bid and 2 cents ask, which is why we left it out of the table.

What these prices do not tell you

A 4.5% price is the cost of a contract, set by whoever is willing to trade at the margin, after fees. It is a market price, with no model behind it, and it has moved hard this year: the 80% January price on $100,000 has not paid out, and Kalshi's 56% June price on a drop below $45,000 now trades at 5.5%. The touch and close contracts also answer different questions, so a reader comparing them should match the contract type, the price source and the start date of each rung before treating two numbers as the same bet.