What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "↓ $2.5" at 39%. The ladder has 14 price levels and $910K in total volume.
The ladder
Last 90 days
- ↓ $2.5 53%
- ↑ $6 16%
- ↓ $2 12%
- ↑ $8 8%
Show the numbers
| Date | ↓ $2.5 | ↑ $6 | ↓ $2 | ↑ $8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 25, 2026 | 50.0% | 22.0% | 50.0% | 21.1% |
| August 31, 2026 | 41.0% | 34.0% | 20.5% | 14.6% |
| September 6, 2026 | 27.5% | 59.5% | 43.0% | 40.8% |
| September 13, 2026 | 59.0% | 49.5% | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| September 19, 2026 | 58.0% | 80.0% | 53.5% | 44.7% |
| September 25, 2026 | 52.5% | 73.0% | 13.5% | 41.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 47.0% | 41.5% | 30.0% | 16.2% |
| October 8, 2026 | 31.0% | 38.5% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| October 14, 2026 | 41.5% | 32.5% | 27.0% | 17.8% |
| October 21, 2026 | 40.5% | 29.5% | 23.0% | 9.2% |
| October 30, 2026 | 48.0% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 6.4% |
| November 6, 2026 | 39.0% | 17.0% | 14.5% | 10.8% |
| November 12, 2026 | 52.5% | 15.5% | 11.5% | 7.6% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $20 | 0.9% | −1 pts | −1 pts | $0 |
| ↑ $15 | 2% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| ↑ $12 | 2% | 0 pts | −2 pts | $5 |
| ↑ $10 | 5% | 0 pts | −5 pts | $44 |
| ↑ $8 | 8% | +2 pts | −5 pts | $415 |
| ↑ $6 | 16% | new | −5 pts | $0 |
| ↑ $4 (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
| ↑ $3 (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
| ↓ $3 (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
| ↓ $2.5 | 39% | +6 pts | +24 pts | $564 |
| ↓ $2 | 12% | −4 pts | −4 pts | $0 |
| ↓ $2 (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
| ↓ $1.5 (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
| ↓ $1 (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds: Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 39% as of November 12, 2026, up 24 points from a week earlier. A 39 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 16% as of November 12, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 16 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Will Lighter dip to $2 before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 12% as of November 12, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 12 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Lighter LIT/USDC trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.