What are the odds: Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 47% as of November 11, 2026, down 10 points from a week earlier. A 47 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 70% as of November 11, 2026, down 11 points from a week earlier. A 70 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 26% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 26 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$1B" at 47%. The ladder has 13 price levels and $9.1M in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$3,000,000,0003%

$2,500,000,0008%

$2,000,000,00016%

$1,500,000,00026%

$1,000,000,00047%

$800,000,00070%

$600,000,00087%

$500,000,00091%

$400,000,00094%

$300,000,00097%

$200,000,00098%

$100,000,00098%

$50,000,00099%

Last 90 days

$1B 47%
$800M 70%
$1.5B 26%
$2B 16%

"$1B" moved from 31% to 47% over 90 days (+16 pts). High: 68% on October 29, 2026. Low: 26% on September 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$1B	$800M	$1.5B	$2B
August 14, 2026	30.8%	36.0%	20.1%	12.8%
August 21, 2026	31.9%	40.0%	21.1%	15.8%
August 28, 2026	33.6%	38.0%	22.8%	15.6%
September 4, 2026	33.6%	36.5%	17.4%	15.8%
September 11, 2026	29.6%	33.5%	22.4%	18.5%
September 18, 2026	26.2%	32.0%	22.7%	17.3%
September 25, 2026	32.0%	38.5%	28.5%	17.5%
October 2, 2026	36.0%	43.5%	27.7%	19.4%
October 9, 2026	35.1%	52.0%	26.5%	20.2%
October 17, 2026	42.9%	54.0%	27.8%	20.6%
October 26, 2026	61.4%	76.0%	38.0%	27.1%
November 4, 2026	58.4%	77.0%	30.0%	22.3%
November 11, 2026	46.9%	69.5%	25.9%	16.2%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$3B	3%	0 pts	−1 pts	$26
$2.5B	8%	new	new	$118
$2B	16%	−4 pts	−5 pts	$7.0K
$1.5B	26%	0 pts	−5 pts	$231
$1B	47%	−3 pts	−10 pts	$6.6K
$800M	70%	−5 pts	−11 pts	$8.2K
$600M	87%	−2 pts	−4 pts	$2.0K
$500M	91%	0 pts	−3 pts	$1.1K
$400M	94%	−1 pts	−2 pts	$1.6K
$300M	97%	0 pts	−1 pts	$6.2K
$200M	98%	0 pts	−1 pts	$304
$100M	98%	0 pts	−1 pts	$2.6K
$50M	99%	0 pts	0 pts	$106

Questions

What are the odds: Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 47% as of November 11, 2026, down 10 points from a week earlier. A 47 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 70% as of November 11, 2026, down 11 points from a week earlier. A 70 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 26% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 26 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".