Will Theo launch a token by ___ ?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is June 30, 2027 at 56%, ahead of December 31, 2027 at 54%. $282K has traded across 8 outcomes.
Last 90 days
- June 30, 2027 50%
- December 31, 2027 54%
- March 31, 2027 52%
- December 31, 2026 27%
Show the numbers
| Date | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30, 2026 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 30.3% |
| November 1, 2026 | 59.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% | 25.2% |
| November 2, 2026 | 54.5% | 53.0% | 51.0% | 25.7% |
| November 3, 2026 | 27.0% | 46.5% | 49.5% | 25.7% |
| November 4, 2026 | 42.5% | 45.5% | 44.5% | 25.8% |
| November 5, 2026 | 69.0% | 47.5% | 49.0% | 31.9% |
| November 6, 2026 | 60.0% | 54.0% | 51.5% | 26.8% |
| November 7, 2026 | 60.0% | 48.0% | 50.0% | 29.6% |
| November 8, 2026 | 52.0% | 48.5% | 50.0% | 29.6% |
| November 9, 2026 | 55.0% | 51.5% | 51.5% | 29.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 54.0% | 56.0% | 53.0% | 29.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 56.5% | 51.5% | 50.5% | 27.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 49.5% | 53.5% | 52.0% | 26.8% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 56% | +4 pts | −14 pts | $0 |
| December 31, 2027 | 54% | new | +6 pts | $0 |
| March 31, 2027 | 47% | +1 pts | +3 pts | $0 |
| December 31, 2026 | 20% | −1 pts | −5 pts | $588 |
| December 31, 2025 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| March 31, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| June 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| September 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Theo launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 56% as of November 11, 2026, down 14 points from a week earlier. A 56 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Will Theo launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 54% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 54 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for March 31, 2027 in "Will Theo launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 47% as of November 11, 2026, up 3 points from a week earlier. A 47 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
Related crypto markets
- Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
- OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
- Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
- What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.