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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" at 2%, down 1 points over the past week. $5.7M has traded on this market.

Last 90 days

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: YES price over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 14, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
The YES price moved from 5% to 2% over 90 days (−2 pts). High: 5% on August 15, 2026. Low: 2% on November 10, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
August 14, 20264.7%
August 21, 20264.8%
August 28, 20264.7%
September 4, 20264.5%
September 12, 20264.5%
September 19, 20264.0%
September 26, 20263.0%
October 3, 20263.0%
October 11, 20263.0%
October 19, 20262.9%
October 28, 20263.1%
November 5, 20262.6%
November 11, 20262.1%

The contract

OutcomeChance24h7 days24h volume
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?2%new−1 pts$17.6K

Questions

What are the odds: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.