Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
As of November 12, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $2.0M has traded across 4 outcomes.
Last 90 days
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 3.3% |
| August 21, 2026 | 2.9% |
| August 27, 2026 | 2.9% |
| September 3, 2026 | 2.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 2.4% |
| September 17, 2026 | 2.6% |
| September 23, 2026 | 2.2% |
| September 30, 2026 | 2.3% |
| October 7, 2026 | 2.3% |
| October 15, 2026 | 1.8% |
| October 25, 2026 | 2.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 2.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.8% |
| November 12, 2026 | 1.8% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| July 31 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| April 30 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| June 30 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Satoshi's identity be proven by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 12, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
Related crypto markets
How it resolves
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.