SBF released from custody in 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "SBF released from custody in 2026?" at 2%. $469K has traded on this market.
Last 90 days
Show the numbers
| Date | SBF released from custody in 2026? |
|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 4.2% |
| August 21, 2026 | 4.2% |
| August 28, 2026 | 3.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 3.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 2.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 2.4% |
| September 25, 2026 | 1.8% |
| October 2, 2026 | 1.7% |
| October 10, 2026 | 1.6% |
| October 18, 2026 | 2.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 1.6% |
| November 6, 2026 | 1.6% |
| November 12, 2026 | 1.6% |
The contract
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | 2% | new | new | $9 |
Questions
- What are the odds: SBF released from custody in 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 12, 2026. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.