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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

As of November 12, 2026, the favorite is Mike Lee at 5%, ahead of Raphael Warnock at 4%. $530K has traded across 15 outcomes.

Last 90 days

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: YES price over 90 days0%25%50%75%100%Aug 14, 2026Sep 28, 2026Nov 12, 2026
  • Mike Lee 5%
  • Raphael Warnock 4%
  • Mark Warner 4%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
"Mike Lee" moved from 39% to 5% over 90 days (−34 pts). High: 59% on August 30, 2026. Low: 3% on October 10, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateMike LeeRaphael WarnockMark WarnerKirsten Gillibrand
August 14, 202638.5%38.7%25.0%32.0%
August 21, 202634.5%17.7%20.0%31.5%
August 27, 202634.0%39.3%23.0%26.0%
September 3, 202612.0%16.8%14.5%32.0%
September 10, 202616.5%35.7%16.0%26.0%
September 17, 202610.5%11.3%0.7%15.0%
September 23, 20269.5%12.4%7.1%9.5%
September 30, 20269.5%12.3%5.1%9.5%
October 7, 20269.5%12.3%5.1%9.5%
October 16, 20269.3%8.9%7.0%7.5%
October 25, 20266.7%6.8%5.9%8.5%
November 4, 20266.6%7.0%8.8%8.0%
November 11, 20264.7%4.0%3.6%2.9%
November 12, 20264.7%4.0%4.0%3.5%

Every outcome

OutcomeChance24h7 days24h volume
Mike Lee5%0 pts−1 pts$0
Raphael Warnock4%0 pts−3 pts$0
Mark Warner4%0 pts−3 pts$0
Kirsten Gillibrand3%+1 pts−4 pts$0
Lisa Blunt Rochester3%new−4 pts$0
Andy Kim3%new−3 pts$0
Jacky Rosen3%0 pts−3 pts$0
Catherine Cortez Masto3%0 pts−4 pts$0
Alex Padilla2%0 pts−2 pts$50
John Fetterman2%−1 pts−5 pts$0
Ruben Gallego2%new−2 pts$0
Rand Paul1%0 pts−3 pts$0
Josh Hawley1%new−3 pts$0
Thom Tillis0.6%0 pts−7 pts$19
Jerry Moran0.1%new−5 pts$0

Questions

What are the odds for Mike Lee in "Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 12, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds for Raphael Warnock in "Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 12, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds for Mark Warner in "Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 12, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regar