Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?
As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$100M" at 13%. The ladder has 6 price levels and $1.1M in total volume.
The ladder
Chance it reaches
$3,000,000,0004%
$2,000,000,0003%
$1,000,000,0006%
$500,000,0009%
$250,000,0009%
$100,000,00013%
Last 90 days
- $100M 13%
- $500M 9%
- $250M 9%
- $1B 6%
Show the numbers
| Date | $100M | $500M | $250M | $1B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 33.5% | 16.0% | 23.0% | 10.5% |
| August 21, 2026 | 37.0% | 25.0% | 28.5% | 11.5% |
| August 28, 2026 | 66.5% | 36.5% | 61.5% | 19.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 46.5% | 33.5% | 44.0% | 18.0% |
| September 12, 2026 | 40.0% | 31.5% | 38.5% | 22.0% |
| September 19, 2026 | 27.0% | 19.0% | 27.0% | 9.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 24.5% | 16.5% | 22.0% | 9.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 22.5% | 8.5% |
| October 11, 2026 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 8.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 24.5% | 7.5% |
| October 28, 2026 | 18.0% | 13.5% | 19.5% | 6.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 6.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 12.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3B | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| $2B | 3% | 0 pts | −4 pts | $240 |
| $1B | 6% | new | −1 pts | $0 |
| $500M | 9% | +1 pts | −4 pts | $0 |
| $250M | 9% | new | −6 pts | $637 |
| $100M | 13% | −1 pts | −1 pts | $2.0K |
Questions
- What are the odds: Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 13% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 13 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 9% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 9 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 9% as of November 11, 2026, down 6 points from a week earlier. A 9 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
Related crypto markets
- Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
- How much will Coinbase token sales raise in 2026? >$1B 8%
- OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
- Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".