What are the odds: Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 72% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 72 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 27% as of November 11, 2026. A 27 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$150M" at 72%. The ladder has 7 price levels and $4.3M in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$3,000,000,0000.9%

$2,000,000,0001%

$1,000,000,0003%

$800,000,0005%

$500,000,00010%

$300,000,00027%

$150,000,00072%

Last 90 days

$150M 72%
$300M 27%
$500M 10%
$800M 5%

"$150M" moved from 74% to 72% over 90 days (−2 pts). High: 83% on October 27, 2026. Low: 43% on August 22, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$150M	$300M	$500M	$800M
August 14, 2026	73.5%	35.0%	13.0%	6.5%
August 21, 2026	74.0%	38.5%	17.0%	8.5%
August 28, 2026	57.5%	39.0%	16.5%	8.5%
September 4, 2026	60.0%	44.5%	18.5%	8.5%
September 12, 2026	60.0%	38.0%	16.5%	8.5%
September 19, 2026	77.0%	44.0%	22.0%	7.5%
September 26, 2026	74.5%	44.5%	24.0%	13.0%
October 3, 2026	66.5%	37.5%	19.5%	10.5%
October 11, 2026	67.5%	44.5%	22.5%	11.0%
October 19, 2026	65.0%	38.5%	18.5%	11.0%
October 28, 2026	82.5%	31.0%	13.5%	6.0%
November 5, 2026	73.5%	28.0%	12.0%	6.0%
November 11, 2026	72.0%	26.5%	10.0%	4.5%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$3B	0.9%	new	−1 pts	$10
$2B	1%	0 pts	0 pts	$80
$1B	3%	new	0 pts	$57
$800M	5%	new	−2 pts	$10
$500M	10%	+1 pts	−2 pts	$4.1K
$300M	27%	−1 pts	new	$7.2K
$150M	72%	+1 pts	−1 pts	$78.7K

Questions

What are the odds: Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 72% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 72 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 27% as of November 11, 2026. A 27 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".