What are the odds: Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 38% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 38 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 38% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 38 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Base FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 37% as of November 11, 2026, up 4 points from a week earlier. A 37 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$1B" at 38%. The ladder has 10 price levels and $908K in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$12,000,000,00018%

$10,000,000,00017%

$8,000,000,00017%

$6,000,000,00025%

$5,000,000,00026%

$4,000,000,00036%

$3,000,000,00037%

$2,000,000,00037%

$1,000,000,00038%

$500,000,00038%

Last 90 days

$1B 38%
$500M 38%
$3B 37%
$2B 37%

"$1B" moved from 60% to 38% over 90 days (−22 pts). High: 61% on September 25, 2026. Low: 36% on October 11, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$1B	$500M	$3B	$2B
August 14, 2026	59.5%	58.5%	45.5%	49.5%
August 21, 2026	53.5%	55.5%	45.5%	53.0%
August 28, 2026	52.0%	57.0%	37.5%	39.0%
September 4, 2026	49.5%	59.0%	37.5%	42.0%
September 12, 2026	45.5%	57.5%	37.5%	42.5%
September 19, 2026	54.0%	57.0%	37.5%	52.5%
September 26, 2026	60.5%	60.5%	44.0%	59.5%
October 3, 2026	45.0%	50.5%	38.0%	43.0%
October 11, 2026	39.5%	45.5%	35.5%	39.5%
October 19, 2026	38.0%	41.5%	35.0%	37.0%
October 28, 2026	40.0%	41.0%	36.5%	40.5%
November 5, 2026	39.5%	38.0%	33.5%	40.0%
November 11, 2026	37.5%	37.5%	37.0%	37.0%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$12B	18%	new	+1 pts	$9
$10B	17%	new	0 pts	$53
$8B	17%	new	+1 pts	$0
$6B	25%	new	−2 pts	$345
$5B	26%	new	new	$0
$4B	36%	new	+2 pts	$0
$3B	37%	new	+4 pts	$0
$2B	37%	new	−2 pts	$151
$1B	38%	−2 pts	−2 pts	$456
$500M	38%	new	−1 pts	$0

Questions

What are the odds: Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 38% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 38 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 38% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 38 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Base FDV above $3B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 37% as of November 11, 2026, up 4 points from a week earlier. A 37 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".