What are the odds: Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 55% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 55 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 71% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 71 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 21% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 21 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$1B" at 55%. The ladder has 10 price levels and $3.9M in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$5,000,000,0003%

$4,000,000,0005%

$3,000,000,00011%

$2,000,000,00021%

$1,000,000,00055%

$800,000,00071%

$500,000,00090%

$300,000,00094%

$200,000,00097%

$100,000,00097%

Last 90 days

$1B 55%
$800M 71%
$2B 21%
$3B 11%

"$1B" moved from 33% to 55% over 90 days (+23 pts). High: 75% on September 24, 2026. Low: 28% on August 19, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$1B	$800M	$2B	$3B
August 14, 2026	32.5%	42.0%	13.4%	8.8%
August 21, 2026	41.0%	44.5%	16.6%	8.9%
August 28, 2026	52.0%	62.5%	20.3%	12.7%
September 4, 2026	53.0%	67.0%	26.0%	13.6%
September 12, 2026	55.0%	68.0%	31.6%	17.8%
September 19, 2026	60.5%	75.5%	28.3%	14.8%
September 26, 2026	65.5%	76.5%	35.4%	15.0%
October 3, 2026	60.5%	70.5%	30.0%	10.2%
October 11, 2026	60.5%	79.5%	29.5%	10.7%
October 19, 2026	58.0%	72.5%	27.3%	11.6%
October 28, 2026	57.5%	72.5%	26.7%	11.6%
November 5, 2026	54.0%	66.5%	25.4%	13.7%
November 11, 2026	55.0%	70.5%	21.1%	10.7%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$5B	3%	0 pts	−1 pts	$116
$4B	5%	0 pts	0 pts	$0
$3B	11%	−1 pts	−3 pts	$1.1K
$2B	21%	−1 pts	−1 pts	$6.3K
$1B	55%	0 pts	−4 pts	$6.2K
$800M	71%	−2 pts	−2 pts	$2.7K
$500M	90%	0 pts	+4 pts	$373
$300M	94%	new	0 pts	$1.0K
$200M	97%	0 pts	−1 pts	$0
$100M	97%	0 pts	−1 pts	$205

Questions

What are the odds: Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 55% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 55 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 71% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 71 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 21% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 21 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".