Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 73%, ahead of November 30, 2026 at 10%. $497K has traded across 6 outcomes.
Last 90 days
- December 31, 2026 73%
- November 30, 2026 10%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 | November 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 61.5% | 27.0% |
| August 21, 2026 | 66.0% | 27.0% |
| August 28, 2026 | 80.5% | 27.0% |
| September 4, 2026 | 73.8% | 27.0% |
| September 12, 2026 | 89.3% | 27.0% |
| September 19, 2026 | 78.9% | 27.0% |
| September 26, 2026 | 88.3% | 26.0% |
| October 3, 2026 | 75.5% | 27.5% |
| October 11, 2026 | 87.6% | 28.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 84.4% | 23.5% |
| October 28, 2026 | 80.8% | 19.0% |
| November 5, 2026 | 81.5% | 3.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 73.2% | 10.4% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 73% | +4 pts | −8 pts | $1.1K |
| November 30, 2026 | 10% | +6 pts | 0 pts | $948 |
| December 31, 2025 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| October 31, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| September 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| June 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 73% as of November 11, 2026, down 8 points from a week earlier. A 73 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for November 30, 2026 in "Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
Related crypto markets
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- OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
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- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
- What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.