Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 70%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 45%. $651K has traded across 7 outcomes.
Last 90 days
- December 31, 2027 70%
- June 30, 2027 45%
- December 31, 2026 2%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 80.3% | 60.0% | 26.0% |
| August 21, 2026 | 79.0% | 60.5% | 24.5% |
| August 28, 2026 | 81.9% | 61.5% | 24.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 75.0% | 38.0% | 15.0% |
| September 12, 2026 | 71.0% | 39.5% | 17.0% |
| September 19, 2026 | 79.5% | 44.5% | 19.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 70.4% | 38.5% | 16.0% |
| October 3, 2026 | 71.5% | 38.5% | 12.0% |
| October 11, 2026 | 76.0% | 38.0% | 10.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 69.9% | 42.5% | 8.5% |
| October 28, 2026 | 72.5% | 42.5% | 6.0% |
| November 5, 2026 | 69.8% | 42.5% | 4.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 70.3% | 44.5% | 1.7% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 70% | −4 pts | +1 pts | $64 |
| June 30, 2027 | 45% | −2 pts | +2 pts | $195 |
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | 0 pts | −2 pts | $206 |
| December 31, 2025 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| March 31, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| June 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| September 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 70% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 70 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 45% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 45 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.