Polymarket vs Kalshi: how low will Ethereum go in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket price the Ethereum low in 2026 differently. The widest gap is at $1,250: 8.5% on Kalshi against 6.5% on Polymarket (+2 pts). 3 price levels are listed on both venues.
| Ethereum falls to | Polymarket | Kalshi | Kalshi minus Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 12.8% | 14.0% | +1 pts |
| $1,250 | 6.5% | 8.5% | +2 pts |
| $1,000 | 3.6% | 4.5% | +1 pts |
How the two contracts resolve
The questions look the same but are written by different venues. Their own rule text, from the data each venue publishes:
Polymarket: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Polymarket market / full ladder and history
Kalshi: How low will Ethereum get in 2026?
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Method
Polymarket "dip to" rungs are matched to Kalshi strikes at the same price level (rounded to the nearest $10, so Kalshi's $99,999.99 matches Polymarket's $100,000). Each price is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Closed rungs are left out.
Questions
- Do Polymarket and Kalshi agree on Ethereum's 2026 low?
- As of November 11, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket price the Ethereum low in 2026 differently. The widest gap is at $1,250: 8.5% on Kalshi against 6.5% on Polymarket (+2 pts). 3 price levels are listed on both venues.
- Why would the same question trade at different prices on two venues?
- The venues have different traders, fees, and access rules, and moving money between them takes time and capital. Their resolution rules also differ in detail; both are quoted on this page. A gap is not free money: fees, the spread, and the rule differences can absorb it.