Polymarket vs Kalshi: how high will Bitcoin go in 2026?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list markets on the Bitcoin high in 2026. No price levels matched in the latest data fetch (November 11, 2026).
How the two contracts resolve
The questions look the same but are written by different venues. Their own rule text, from the data each venue publishes:
Polymarket: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Polymarket market / full ladder and history
Method
Polymarket "reach" rungs are matched to Kalshi strikes at the same price level (rounded to the nearest $10, so Kalshi's $99,999.99 matches Polymarket's $100,000). Each price is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Closed rungs are left out.