Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
As of November 12, 2026, the favorite is S&P 500 at 88%, ahead of Gold at 6%. $1000K has traded across 3 outcomes.
Last 90 days
- S&P 500 88%
- Gold 6%
- Bitcoin 5%
Show the numbers
| Date | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 69.0% | 19.0% | 12.5% |
| August 21, 2026 | 59.0% | 23.5% | 16.0% |
| August 28, 2026 | 53.5% | 30.5% | 18.5% |
| September 5, 2026 | 51.0% | 26.5% | 16.5% |
| September 12, 2026 | 54.5% | 25.5% | 21.5% |
| September 19, 2026 | 54.5% | 21.5% | 19.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 53.5% | 15.0% | 27.0% |
| October 4, 2026 | 59.5% | 12.5% | 24.5% |
| October 11, 2026 | 67.5% | 8.5% | 19.0% |
| October 19, 2026 | 69.0% | 6.0% | 17.5% |
| October 28, 2026 | 74.5% | 5.5% | 18.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 86.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| November 12, 2026 | 87.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 88% | 0 pts | +3 pts | $29 |
| Gold | 6% | 0 pts | +3 pts | $0 |
| Bitcoin | 5% | new | −5 pts | $5 |
Questions
- What are the odds for S&P 500 in "Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 88% as of November 12, 2026, up 3 points from a week earlier. A 88 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Gold in "Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 12, 2026, up 3 points from a week earlier. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Bitcoin in "Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 12, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
Related crypto markets
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 33%
- Bitcoin best month in 2026? August 92%
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 66%
- What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 72,000 47%
- What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↓ 72,500 82%
- Bitcoin all time high by ___? December 31, 2026 2%
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Go