Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?" at 33%, down 9 points over the past week. $488K has traded on this market.
Last 90 days
Show the numbers
| Date | Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? |
|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 17.5% |
| August 21, 2026 | 24.0% |
| August 28, 2026 | 23.5% |
| September 5, 2026 | 29.5% |
| September 12, 2026 | 35.5% |
| September 19, 2026 | 35.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 40.5% |
| October 4, 2026 | 45.5% |
| October 11, 2026 | 45.0% |
| October 19, 2026 | 42.0% |
| October 28, 2026 | 41.0% |
| November 5, 2026 | 41.5% |
| November 12, 2026 | 32.5% |
The contract
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | 33% | −4 pts | −9 pts | $317 |
Questions
- What are the odds: Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 33% as of November 12, 2026, down 9 points from a week earlier. A 33 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.