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Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?

As of November 12, 2026, the favorite is 1M+ at 0.7%. $573K has traded across 2 outcomes.

Last 90 days

Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?: YES price over 90 days0%6%13%19%25%Aug 14, 2026Sep 28, 2026Nov 12, 2026
"1M+" moved from 8% to 0.7% over 90 days (−7 pts). High: 13% on August 30, 2026. Low: 0.7% on November 7, 2026.
Show the numbers
Date1M+
August 14, 20267.5%
August 21, 20267.5%
August 27, 20269.5%
September 3, 20269.5%
September 10, 20268.5%
September 17, 20269.5%
September 23, 20268.0%
September 30, 20268.0%
October 7, 20266.0%
October 16, 20263.5%
October 25, 20263.0%
November 4, 20261.8%
November 11, 20260.7%
November 12, 20260.7%

Every outcome

OutcomeChance24h7 days24h volume
800k+ (closed, YES)100%newnew$0
1M+0.7%new−1 pts$0

Questions

What are the odds for 1M+ in "Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 0.7% as of November 12, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings. For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases