Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?
As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$300M" at 5%. The ladder has 8 price levels and $3.4M in total volume.
The ladder
Chance it reaches
$4,000,000,0002%
$3,000,000,0003%
$2,000,000,0003%
$1,000,000,0003%
$700,000,0004%
$500,000,0004%
$300,000,0005%
$100,000,0004%
Last 90 days
- $300M 5%
- $700M 4%
- $500M 4%
- $100M 4%
Show the numbers
| Date | $300M | $700M | $500M | $100M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 11.0% |
| August 21, 2026 | 14.0% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 14.5% |
| August 28, 2026 | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 12.5% |
| September 12, 2026 | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 13.5% |
| September 19, 2026 | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 12.0% |
| October 3, 2026 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| October 11, 2026 | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% |
| October 19, 2026 | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| October 28, 2026 | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| November 5, 2026 | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4B | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| $3B | 3% | 0 pts | −1 pts | $61 |
| $2B | 3% | new | 0 pts | $26 |
| $1B | 3% | 0 pts | −2 pts | $50 |
| $700M | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $80 |
| $500M | 4% | new | −1 pts | $0 |
| $300M | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| $100M | 4% | new | −2 pts | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds: Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds: Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".