What are the odds: Reya FDV above $10M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 17% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 17 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 16% as of November 11, 2026, up 5 points from a week earlier. A 16 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Reya FDV above $40M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 14% as of November 11, 2026. A 14 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$10M" at 17%. The ladder has 8 price levels and $536K in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$1,000,000,0001.0%

$400,000,0006%

$300,000,0004%

$200,000,0006%

$150,000,0009%

$70,000,00016%

$40,000,00014%

$10,000,00017%

Last 90 days

$10M 17%
$70M 16%
$40M 14%
$150M 9%

"$10M" moved from 69% to 17% over 90 days (−52 pts). High: 80% on September 29, 2026. Low: 12% on October 25, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$10M	$70M	$40M	$150M
August 14, 2026	69.0%	57.0%	61.0%	25.5%
August 21, 2026	60.0%	55.5%	54.5%	18.5%
August 28, 2026	62.5%	29.5%	44.0%	18.0%
September 4, 2026	57.0%	33.0%	36.0%	20.5%
September 11, 2026	75.5%	50.5%	64.0%	21.0%
September 18, 2026	62.0%	41.0%	51.0%	18.0%
September 25, 2026	76.0%	57.0%	74.5%	22.5%
October 2, 2026	68.5%	58.5%	70.5%	18.0%
October 9, 2026	43.0%	37.5%	44.0%	19.0%
October 17, 2026	22.0%	22.5%	23.0%	17.5%
October 26, 2026	21.5%	17.0%	21.0%	11.0%
November 5, 2026	17.0%	11.5%	14.5%	10.0%
November 11, 2026	16.5%	15.5%	14.5%	8.5%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$1B	1.0%	new	new	$0
$400M	6%	new	0 pts	$0
$300M	4%	0 pts	−3 pts	$0
$200M	6%	new	−1 pts	$0
$150M	9%	new	−1 pts	$0
$70M	16%	new	+5 pts	$0
$40M	14%	−1 pts	new	$225
$10M	17%	new	+1 pts	$0

Questions

What are the odds: Reya FDV above $10M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 17% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 17 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 16% as of November 11, 2026, up 5 points from a week earlier. A 16 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Reya FDV above $40M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 14% as of November 11, 2026. A 14 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".