Stablecoins depeg before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is USD1 at 10%, ahead of USDS at 6%. $306K has traded across 10 outcomes.
Last 90 days
- USD1 10%
- USDS 6%
- USDTb 6%
- USD0 6%
Show the numbers
| Date | USD1 | USDS | USDTb | USD0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 16.5% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 19.5% |
| August 21, 2026 | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 18.0% |
| August 28, 2026 | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 17.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 18.5% |
| September 12, 2026 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 12.5% | 20.5% |
| September 19, 2026 | 6.0% | 5.5% | 21.0% | 18.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 12.0% | 24.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 25.0% |
| October 11, 2026 | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% |
| October 19, 2026 | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% |
| October 28, 2026 | 16.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 10.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 10.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USR (closed, YES) | 100% | new | new | $0 |
| USD1 | 10% | new | new | $56 |
| USDS | 6% | −1 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| USDTb | 6% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| USD0 | 6% | +1 pts | new | $0 |
| GHO | 5% | 0 pts | −1 pts | $0 |
| DAI | 3% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| PYUSD | 2% | 0 pts | +2 pts | $0 |
| USDE | 2% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| USDC | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds for USD1 in "Stablecoins depeg before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for USDS in "Stablecoins depeg before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for USDTb in "Stablecoins depeg before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USD1-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USD1 below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USD1-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSD1USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USD1-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USD1 information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USD1 was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.