What are the odds: StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$1B" at 2%. The ladder has 11 price levels and $1.8M in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$10,000,000,0000.6%

$7,000,000,0000.8%

$5,000,000,0002%

$3,000,000,0001%

$2,000,000,0001%

$1,000,000,0002%

$800,000,0002%

$400,000,0002%

$200,000,0002%

$100,000,0001%

$50,000,0001%

Last 90 days

$1B 2%
$400M 2%
$800M 2%
$5B 2%

"$1B" moved from 11% to 2% over 90 days (−8 pts). High: 16% on September 9, 2026. Low: 1% on October 17, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$1B	$400M	$800M	$5B
August 14, 2026	10.5%	20.0%	13.0%	3.2%
August 21, 2026	11.0%	22.0%	12.0%	3.2%
August 28, 2026	10.5%	24.0%	13.5%	3.2%
September 4, 2026	11.5%	21.5%	14.0%	3.2%
September 12, 2026	13.0%	22.0%	13.5%	3.2%
September 19, 2026	11.0%	24.5%	17.5%	2.4%
September 26, 2026	11.5%	23.0%	14.0%	2.9%
October 3, 2026	12.0%	30.5%	15.5%	2.9%
October 11, 2026	11.5%	15.5%	14.0%	2.8%
October 18, 2026	1.3%	2.0%	1.3%	1.2%
October 28, 2026	2.9%	1.3%	1.8%	2.1%
November 5, 2026	2.8%	2.0%	1.8%	1.9%
November 11, 2026	2.4%	2.0%	1.9%	1.8%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$10B	0.6%	0 pts	new	$75
$7B	0.8%	new	0 pts	$0
$5B	2%	new	0 pts	$0
$3B	1%	new	0 pts	$0
$2B	1%	new	0 pts	$10
$1B	2%	new	0 pts	$0
$800M	2%	new	0 pts	$0
$400M	2%	new	new	$0
$200M	2%	0 pts	0 pts	$0
$100M	1%	0 pts	−2 pts	$0
$50M	1%	0 pts	−1 pts	$0

Questions

What are the odds: StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? ↓ 74,000 100%
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".