What are the odds: Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 40% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 40 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 26% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 26 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

What are the odds: Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Polymarket traders priced it at 26% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 26 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

All markets / Open / Polymarket

Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?

As of November 11, 2026, the closest-to-even rung is "$200M" at 40%. The ladder has 8 price levels and $257K in total volume.

The ladder

Chance it reaches

$3,000,000,00013%

$2,000,000,00014%

$1,500,000,00023%

$1,000,000,00017%

$800,000,00021%

$600,000,00026%

$400,000,00026%

$200,000,00040%

Last 90 days

$200M 40%
$400M 26%
$600M 26%
$1.5B 22%

"$200M" moved from 45% to 40% over 90 days (−4 pts). High: 48% on October 8, 2026. Low: 34% on August 18, 2026.

Show the numbers

Date	$200M	$400M	$600M	$1.5B
August 14, 2026	44.5%	39.0%	10.5%	13.0%
August 21, 2026	42.5%	37.0%	29.0%	18.0%
August 28, 2026	41.5%	37.0%	18.5%	14.5%
September 4, 2026	42.5%	37.5%	15.5%	16.0%
September 12, 2026	42.0%	29.0%	14.0%	8.0%
September 19, 2026	38.0%	29.5%	12.5%	9.5%
September 26, 2026	42.0%	29.0%	12.5%	9.5%
October 3, 2026	45.0%	31.0%	24.0%	17.5%
October 11, 2026	48.0%	31.5%	20.5%	19.0%
October 18, 2026	45.5%	31.5%	27.5%	23.5%
October 27, 2026	46.0%	31.5%	26.5%	18.0%
November 4, 2026	42.0%	26.5%	24.0%	19.0%
November 11, 2026	40.0%	26.0%	25.5%	21.5%

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	7 days	24h volume
$3B	13%	new	−1 pts	$0
$2B	14%	0 pts	0 pts	$0
$1.5B	23%	−1 pts	+2 pts	$18
$1B	17%	−1 pts	−1 pts	$60
$800M	21%	new	0 pts	$0
$600M	26%	0 pts	+1 pts	$0
$400M	26%	new	0 pts	$0
$200M	40%	−6 pts	−2 pts	$458

Questions

What are the odds: Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 40% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 40 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 26% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 26 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
What are the odds: Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch?: Polymarket traders priced it at 26% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 26 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?: They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? $1B 5%
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 3%
Consensys IPO by ___ ? December 31, 2026 3%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? ↓ 70,000 62%
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What price will Bitcoin hit in November? ↑ 75,000 86%

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Unit's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".