Will Abstract launch a token by ___?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 5%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 4%. $649K has traded across 7 outcomes.
Last 90 days
- December 31, 2027 5%
- June 30, 2027 4%
- September 30, 2027 4%
- March 31, 2027 4%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | September 30, 2027 | March 31, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | 41.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% | 30.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 39.0% | 40.5% | 49.5% | 51.0% |
| August 27, 2026 | 51.0% | 40.5% | 52.0% | 51.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 49.5% | 39.5% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 59.5% | 40.5% | 37.5% | 48.5% |
| September 16, 2026 | 52.0% | 30.0% | 49.0% | 33.5% |
| September 23, 2026 | 53.0% | 34.5% | 43.0% | 27.0% |
| September 30, 2026 | 52.0% | 31.0% | 42.5% | 28.5% |
| October 7, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| October 16, 2026 | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| October 25, 2026 | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% |
| November 4, 2026 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 5% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| June 30, 2027 | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| September 30, 2027 | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | $0 |
| March 31, 2027 | 4% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | new | 0 pts | $0 |
| September 30, 2026 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
| December 31, 2025 (closed, NO) | 0% | new | new | $0 |
Questions
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Will Abstract launch a token by ___?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Abstract launch a token by ___?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for September 30, 2027 in "Will Abstract launch a token by ___?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
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How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.